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Thursday, March 30, 2006

Apple iPhone soon? Not likely.

Contrary to published reports, two independent sources speaking on condition of anonymity recently disclosed that Apple's cell phone ambitions have been put on hold as the company has encountered "significant technological hurdles" in developing the product. Apple had wanted to design a cell phone from the ground up, but has encountered technical difficulties that are preventing it from going further.

read more | digg story

Fake Apple 6G iPod Video Ad

Someone has posted another fake Apple 6G iPod Video Ad. Overall it seems well done since the music and the style of the ad seem to be typical of Apple, but the ending clearly is amateurish.

read more | digg story

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Why Apple can't announce their 6G iPod Video

Steve Jobs is a smart guy, he knows that you need content to sell hardware. If there isn't any compelling content then the result will be weak harware sales. In the same way that Apple sells the entire widget (hardware and software), Apple wants to sell iPod and iTunes. When the 5G iPods came out, Jobs announced music videos and TV shows for download. He said movies would take too long to download.

So to take care of this problem, Apple will/has already set up a streaming movie solution. You can begin watching as soon as you click buy. The problem is that the movie industry wants the same thing the music industry wants. They want to rent you digital downloads. They don't want to sell downloads for fear of piracy. This fear is what gave Apple the lock on the music digital download market. The music industry refused to give the same terms to any other company, everyone else was forced by the music industry into selling monthly rental fees ala Rhapsody, Napster, etc. Only after the music industry saw the massive market share that Apple gained from selling songs instead of renting them, did they let the cell phone industry sell songs (on terms that are likely not as profitable).

The movie industry and Apple are currently battling this same plan out behind the scenes. Apple wants to sell movie downloads and with his new position as the largest investor in Disney, hopefully he will be able to pull it off. Until then Apple won't announce their 6G video iPods .

iPodNN | Apple expands 'Season Pass' to Lost, DH

Apple has added a few more shows to its list of season pass offerings. Currently season passes for Desperate Housewives and Lost are being offered for $35. Passes are for one season, season 2 episodes will include all unaired episodes as well.

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

MercuryNews.com | 03/26/2006 | Didn't want to change the world, just wanted to work on computers

The San Jose Mercury news interviewed Steve Wozniak (the other co-founder of Apple) and has posted it on their site. He discusses how he really just wanted to be an engineer and work on computers. He mentions the little know fact that HP had the rights to whatever Woz designed but they turned him down. After they started a project to build a computer at HP, they refused to let Woz work on the project. He describes it as sad at the time, but on the whole a benefit for the world :)

Monday, March 27, 2006

The iPod Observer - Now Playing - Apple and France Sometimes Sound Alike

A few months before the iTunes music store was opened, Steve Jobs made a quote that was very similar to what France is saying now. At the time he was responding to the music industry, and their complaints about Apple's Rip. Mix. Burn. ads. He stated that "If you legally acquire music, you need to have the right to manage it on all other devices that you own." Which is similar to Frances DRM strategy in that if you purchase music is should be playable on any MP3 player.

Sunday, March 26, 2006

Apple iPod: One Giant Leap for Advertising - boakes.org

Perhaps this is what Apple will announce on April 1st since their products and related services may not be ready. Apple co-founder, Steve Jobs won the rights to an abandoned mine in Australia during a poker game. For two years this "ad" has been in construction and is the size of 8 soccer fields.

Beatles taking Apple to court over theft of trademark

The Beatles are finally getting their day in court over Apple's breach of their agreement not to use the name "Apple" to distribute music.

read more | digg story

Britain, UK news from The Times and The Sunday Times - Times Online

Apple Corps. the Beatles licensing company is again suing Apple computer. They first sued 5 years after Apple Computer was created. They settled with the agreement that Apple would not get into the music business. They sued again when Apple released a music program which was settled as long as Apple did not distribute "creative works" i.e. music. The contract seems to have been worded to cover CDs and cassettes, but not digital downloads. The case is finally going to high court this week.

Saturday, March 25, 2006

iPodNN | Apple offers more iTunes video bundles

As iTunes sells songs individually and in albums, Apple is moving to sell collections of videos now as well. They are offering video collections and vingles (video + single), with the video collection including exclusive videos not available elsewhere.

VANITY FAIR : ROUNDTABLE : CONTENT

Vanity Fair has a piece on Steve Jobs ascendancy and discusses at its end the various rumors of new products. They describe Apple cell phones (iPhone) and set top boxes (Mac Mini's etc.) as future products.

Big-box retailers offer hints at forthcoming iPod changes

This week there is new evidence to suggest that Apple Computer is slowly and quietly planning to spice up its most popular iPod offerings sometime in the near term. Meijer and Amazon are discounting their current iPods. In addition to the "at-risk" status of the 60GB iPod with Video, it seems new products will be coming soon.

read more | digg story

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Apple: French Law Is 'Piracy'

Apple Computer said on Tuesday a proposed French law that would force Apple to make sure that songs bought on its iTunes music store can work on any portable player would result in "state-sponsored piracy."

read more | digg story

iPod phone confirmed

While analysts and Apple rumor sites have been speculating, Benq confirms that an iPhone is in the works. Their suppliers who work with Apple have been requested to supply parts for the iPhone. Benq also states that the Apple iPhone is common knowledge in Taiwan. The iPhone is expected to be released in the 4th quarter of this year.

read more | digg story

iPod phone confirmed

While analysts and Apple rumor sites have been speculating, Benq confirms that an iPhone is in the works. Their suppliers who work with Apple have been requested to supply parts for the iPhone. Benq also states that the Apple iPhone is common knowledge in Taiwan. The iPhone is expected to be released in the 4th quarter of this year.

read more | digg story

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Smarthouse - iPhone (iPod phone) confirmed

Benq, one of Apple's competitors in the MP3 player market has let the cat out of the bag. In talking with their suppliers they have learned that Apple has requested their suppliers to provide parts for the upcoming iPhone. Analysts expect the iPhone to be released in the fourth quarter, or at least within one year.

Friday, March 17, 2006

AppleInsider | Apple reserves room for changes atop iPod line

It has been confirmed that Apple has placed the top line 60GB iPod on a 60 day at risk list one month ago. This further confirms that Apple's announcement on April 1, if announced will likely replace the current iPod with another iPod. Most likely this iPod will have a larger screen. It seems that the product has not been end of lifed as of yet, but signs point to the failing health of the 60GB iPod.

Thursday, March 16, 2006

AppleInsider | PiperJaffray: "75 percent chance" of an Apple iPhone

Analysts are yet again pining for Apple to get into the cell phone market. PiperJaffray gives a 75% chance to the likelihood of a phone appearing. They also state that Apple at this price is a good buy because of future form factor iPods (i.e. the much rumored iPod video), Intel Macs and the Apple iPhone.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Apple Pulls First movie; then bumps it up to $9.99 instead!

In what seems to confirm the exploratory nature of iTunes movies, iTunes only Disney movie now costs $9.99. This is comparable to the price of a DVD but is only at half VGA resolution and does not include any extras. Perhaps others in the company got wind of this and overruled the CEO claiming that future DVD profits were at stake? Whats interesting is that this was a made for TV Disney movie that would have been shown for free. So any sales they would have gotten would have been pretty much profit.

read more | digg story

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

NCAA basketball tournament coming to iTunes; Season Pass offered

Apple and CBS Sports have announced that the 2006 NCAA Division I Men' Basketball Championship will be available from the iTunes Music Store. Condensed versions of the tournament games will be available for $1.99 per game or $19.99 for all 63 condensed games using Apple's new "Season Pass" feature on iTunes,

read more | digg story

Mac Rumors: Apple Offering Full Length Movie on iTunes

Apple is offering its first full length movie on iTunes. The movie is High School Musical, a Disney movie, whether Jobs being on the Disney board had anything to do with this is unknown. Interestingly the movie is not linked from the main iTunes store.

AppleInsider | Jobs plans rare trip to India to launch new facility?

Steve Jobs is reported to be making a trip to India to launch a new R&D facility there. Other than India, the only asian country Jobs has only officially travelled to is Japan. During his younger days Jobs spent several years in India traveling, most likely his trip this time will not be for enlightenment :)

Monday, March 13, 2006

HBO to offer content on iTunes

Interestingly they will not be releasing their full shows on iTunes, but only cast interviews, behind the scenes footage and similar show related content. The content is being released for Sopranos, Big Love, Rome and Entourage.

read more | digg story

AppleInsider | Citigroup lifts Apple with new product predictions

Citigroup upgrade Apple on the expectation that significant products will be relased on April 1. In agreement with all the rumors, they expect a true video iPod and an Intel MacBook to be announced. Most likely if Apple announces the iPod Video, they will announce the ability to stream movies from iTunes as well.

Future products they expect are: a redesigned iPod nano, with lowered prices and increased capacities and an Apple cell phone.

Contrary to rumor sites, Citigroup seems to expect that the revised iPod Video will replace the current iPod which has only been on the market for 5 months. If the current iPod were on the market for close to a year this would make sense, but Apple would not release a product and replace it within only a few months. The true iPod Video (which will likely be marketed as such) will be sold at a higher price than the current iPod.

Thursday, March 09, 2006

Why the video iPod hasn't come out yet

A lot of people were expecting a true video iPod (among other things) at Macworld. They were also disappointed with Apple "only" announcing the iPod Hi-Fi and no video iPod. The problem with announcing a true video iPod is the content. Basically you can watch a TV show on the current iPod, but in order to watch a 2 hour movie you really need a bigger screen. Apple is planning on pricing the product above their current iPod line (bigger screen, HD, battery etc. add cost as well) and so they need movies to drive the sale of these iPods. The lack of a distribution deal with the movie industry is why the video iPod was not announced at either of Apple's two events.

While Steve Jobs just sold Pixar to Disney (where he is now on the board), he can probably pull some strings to get some Disney movies (Disney, Touchstone, Hollywood Pictures, Miramax and now Pixar), but more content would be better. With the current generation iPod there were only a few TV shows to start, but tons of music videos. So when Apple announced the iPod with video they had lots of content to sell.

As the article mentions, the movie industry wants what the music industry is trying to push on consumers. They want people to rent but not own digital movies. This might make more sense in the movie industry as people are very accustomed to renting movies from Blockbuster, Netflix etc. While people do buy DVD movies, people seem happy just renting when they want to watch something. Regardless the big Steve wants to sell movies to customers. This would definitely give Apple a leg up on competitors if they could work out a distribution deal early in a movies release window to sell the movie. i.e. during the DVD window would make sense.

Video iPod to launch on April Fools

In a research report on Portalplayer, analysts have cited independent confirmation that a redesigned video iPod will be launched at Apple's 30th anniversary announcement. Along with a bigger battery, lcd, and HD, analysts expect the price to be around $400-$500. Analysts seem to expect softer overall demand in the second half for iPods, citing cannibalization. With the release of a video iPod, it would likely bring in new iPod owners as video enthusiasts purchase the new iPod.

read more | digg story

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

"Apple could grab 9% Marketshare"

Another study that points to the same direction, Apple running on Intel will be a positive for the company. When the first rumors of the switch came out, Microsoft commissioned an internal study on the results. The study stated that while Apple might initially lose some marketshare during the transition period, that over time they would gain marketshare. Later a Gartner analyst stated a similar result, and now we have another study saying the same thing. The key to Apple increasing their marketshare is for Apple to "embrace and extend" Mac so that it runs Windows and Mac OS X. There are rumors that Apple itself is working to help make this happen.

read more | digg story

AppleInsider | Apple iTunes to sell monthly subscription to shows

AppleInsider covers what was posted here previously, that Apple is experimenting with different ways to sell content, including on a monthly basis. Some more details have surfaced, the shows will have no commercials similar to Comedy Centrals DVD business. While a DVD will bring in a whole season, Apple is selling a months worth of shows. In this sense the survey that was supposedly released by Vongo, could have been influenced by Apple.

Daily Show available on iTunes and "monetizing content"

There is an interesting comment about "monetizing" the content. Essentially if you have cable and get Comedy Central and pay for this download you have paid Comedy Central twice over. If your download includes commercials you can't skip then you are paying them three times in effect. The advertiser pays them twice for you to watch, and you are paying them to watch it. So basically make sure that if you pay for a download it has no commercials, or it should be free!

read more | digg story

Prepaid shows being sold on iTunes

In what seems to be a testing of the monthly subscription waters (the previous survey was sent out by Vongo), Apple is selling the Daily Show and the Colbert report for $9.99. This will get you the next month or 16 shows for that price. The difference is that while Apple is able to collect the money upfront, it looks like the consumer will be able to keep the content they paid for, i.e. they own it and are not renting it.

Piper Jaffray: Apple Struggling to Meet MacBook Pro Demand || The Mac Observer

The latest financial reports seem to have sent AAPL stock higher in the last few days. Analysts had been concerned with the Intel transition as well as the number of post holiday iPod sales there would be. They latest numbers show that while overall Mac sales may be down, MacBook Pro sales are limited by Apple's ability to manufacture them. iPod sales seem to have matched or beaten analysts expectations.

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

History of iPod Price Decline $80/GB to $7/GB

While the author focuses soley on the decline of per gigabyte prices, he ignores the other market forces at work. Namely that large music collections require an intuitive way to navigate them (i.e. good UI), Apple's DRM and per song pricing (vs. monthly pricing) are strongly preferred by consumers, and that as HD prices increases, so will MP3 bitrates. The longer Apple can dominate the market the more lock in they will create as people who buy songs from iTunes have to buy Apple MP3 players in the future in order to listen to those songs.

read more | digg story

Apple Matters | How much cheaper is the iPod going to get?

An article graphically showing the decline in iPod price per gigabyte. Based on these graphs the author extrapolates that Apple will not be the market leader in 3-5 years as MP# players become commodities. He notes that while iPod prices have remained the same, their size and features have increased. He reasons that eventually this will have to come to a stop and that someone like Amazon will become the leader.

Two factors that aren't taken into account in this article is the increase in MP3 bitrates over time. When MP3 players first came out they had 32MB and 64MB sizes. Bit rates were 64k to be able to fit ~20 songs onto the player. Now most people rip their songs at 192k or 256k bitrates. As long as MP3 bit rates increase at the same rate as HD size increases, then the sweet spot will still be larger HD's as opposed to commodity drives. i.e. no one would buy a 32MB MP3 player today even though it would be dirt cheap.

The second factor not taken into account is Apple's DRM. Everyone who purchases songs from iTunes becomes locked into buy Apple MP3 players. The only way you can listen to the hundreds of dollars spent at Apple's iTunes store is to continue to buy Apple products. Eventually if no one is able to challenge Apple's dominance in the MP3 player market, Apple will reach critical mass and they will have effectively won.

Monday, March 06, 2006

YouTube - iPod Video in the wild...

A supposedly fake video ipod. This one was likey done in a video program, note that the user never interacts with the device.

YouTube - The Next Step of iPod - Apple

Video of next generation Apple AV iPod. Seems like the user is adjusting the volume.

The Joy of Tech comic... laughter is the best tech support.

Steve Jobs responds to disappointment with Apple's latest announcement.

"There's a whole world out there! When I was your age, I didn't surf the web all day looking for Apple rumors! I lived! Explore! Do! Live!"

Hilarious stuff :)

Sunday, March 05, 2006

iPod AV - Exclusive Pictures

Barely a week after the "iPod video" hoax, MacShrine has 3 new images showing off the iPod AV, and they look pretty real. While some people will always call anything a hoax, this set of shots look pretty real.

read more | digg story

Apple 6G iPod "Official" Graphics.

With all the "leaks" and fake images of the next generation video iPod we have some more pics that are along the same lines. In general the leaks all seem to point to the same thing, which is also similar to the rumors reported by sites such as Think Secret and Apple Insider. The next iPod will likely have it entire front be a touch sensitive LCD screen. These images are supposed "leaks" from Apple's next web design and look pretty convincing.

read more | digg story

Apple's IPod Hi-Fi Too Close To Bose - Forbes.com

Analysts sour on Apple iPod Hi-Fi, but PC Magazine thinks its great. Analysts at Credit Suisse thought that the iPod Hi-Fi was too similar to the Bose SoundDock, and that it would not be a blockbuster product for Apple. He seems to imply that as Bose is the "recognized leader in acoustics" that the iPod HiFi somehow doesn't measure up. PC Magazine on the other hand did an in depth review and concluded by stating

"wholeheartedly recommend this speaker if you're looking for an extremely powerful single-cabinet speaker that's portable (runs on batteries as well as AC), because this is about as good as it gets. It's not cheap, you can't throw it in your backpack, it's not a 5.1 system, and it won't take the place of thousand-dollar high-end floor-standing speakers. But it's not intended to be any of those things. It is a compact powerhouse that charges your iPod while it pumps out pristine audio."

A fair number of qualifiers, but overall he did think it was a very powerful good sounding speaker.

Friday, March 03, 2006

The iPod Observer - Now Playing - Analyst: 'iPhone' Will Be a 'Category Killer'

Another analyst is trying to push their view that Apple should get into the cell phone market. Kirk Yang from Citigroup Asia explains his point by saying that in Asia cell phones are status symbols and people are willing to pay large amounts of money for them. So combining a high quality MP3 player with good design would allow Apple to sell a cell phone for $500-$600 dollars. It doesn't seem like the cell phone industry would really improve Apples margins (50% in the case of Macs), so it doesn't make financial sense for them to get into the business.

Federal Probe Is Said to Focus on Music Pricing - Los Angeles Times

Along with the NY Attorney General, the US DOJ is investigating digital download prices of music. They will be looking into the legality of clauses that guarantee that competitors will get the same price. Critics claim these clauses may force Apple to raise its $.99 pricing on individual songs.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

AppleInsider | Apple researching iTunes feature film movie service?

A very interesting article on what Apple is planning with its iTunes movie service. The article mentions a survey conducted on Apple's behalf. Whats interesting is the description of the movie service, broadband would be required and that movies could be offered on a SUBSCRIPTION basis. This is interesting in terms of Apple's DRM. If they can do this with movies, they could offer this very easily with iTunes songs if they felt there was a demand (i.e. Napter et al get their act together). The description also reveals that the movies could be played on a computer, an iPod or streamed to a TV (perhaps using a Mac Mini as the media server). As rumored previously, the movies would be streamed and would begin playing immediately.

The survey also looks at a pay per movie model, with movies being sold at typical DVD prices ($12.95) which seems rather excessive. Considering album prices on iTunes are similar to CD prices, this doesn't seem too unreasonable. Since a lot of DVD's can be had for $9.99 or less, this type of pricing for a pay per movie could be expected. The limitation on making DVD's is similar to purchasing iTunes shows, i.e. it can't be done.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

AppleInsider | Analyst: Apple's bigger picture is becoming clear

Financial analysts at American Technology Research are beginning to see that, while not explicitiy announced as such, the new Mac Mini is part of a bigger move by Apple into the living room. While everyone talks about making the Mac Mini a DVR/PVR, it seems with the iTunes Movie store on the horizon, it would be in Apple's interests to only provide links to iTunes.

The analyst stated that due to weak technicals on the stock, the price of AAPL may drop and that it would be a good time to buy the stock. Currently their price target for AAPL is $101.

AppleInsider | PiperJaffray: new Apple products positive, but not too significant

Even though Apple basically has begun their invasion of the living room, and that the stage is set for streaming iTunes movies to your TV, financial analysts don't see much that will affect their 2006 forecast for Apple. PiperJaffray maintained its $103 price target on Apple.